Early returns show Mayor Jesse Arreguín well ahead in a crowded primary to represent Berkeley in the state Senate, with Oakland Councilmember Dan Kalb leading a closer race for second place.
Meanwhile, California Labor Federation President Kathryn Lybarger — who was the subject of millions of dollars’ worth of outside spending from unions backing her campaign and business interests opposed to it — was running outside the top two in results as of Wednesday morning.
It will take several days for election officials to count ballots from the race, so that running order could change.
The top two finishers in Tuesday’s primary, regardless of party, will advance to the November general election. The race to replace termed-out state Sen. Nancy Skinner is all but certain to be a Democrat-versus-Democrat showdown in deep-blue Senate District 7, which covers East Bay shoreline cities from Crockett to Oakland.
Arreguín holds a sizable lead over the rest of the field with an estimated 30% of votes counted Wednesday morning, according to the Associated Press. Kalb, Lybarger, AC Transit board Director Jovanka Beckles, former state Assemblymember Sandré Swanson and Republican broker Jeanne Solnordal were all within a few percentage points of second place.
“I think it’s a testament to the great campaign we ran, and the broad coalition that supported us,” Arreguín said of his lead in an interview Wednesday. “I’m ready to step forward and bring all that I’ve learned and all that we’ve done to make a bigger impact for our community.”
As any resident of the district who has checked their mailbox lately can tell you, a glut of campaign spending has focused on Arreguín and Lybarger, who also picked up most of the race’s high-profile endorsements.
Lybarger gave a short but upbeat speech to dozens of supporters and labor organizers who gathered at a watch party Tuesday night at a West Oakland brewery, telling them, “We have a really great shot at this.”
The other candidates looking to score an upset by cracking the top two may have been aided by a barrage of attack ads targeting Lybarger late in the campaign, which were funded by businesses she sparred with in Sacramento, such as the ride-hailing company Uber.
“We knew we had a decent chance to slip in because of all the money being spent” on negative ads, Kalb said. “I think our positive message of experience and ideas … got through to enough voters — we’ll see if that holds.”
Several independent expenditure committees, which aren’t subject to contribution or spending limits, have poured millions into the contest, making its mailers and online ads inescapable. An analysis by the San Jose Mercury News found those outside groups had made the East Bay campaign the most expensive state Senate race in California as of last month.
Interest groups representing realtors, landlords and dentists, along with Pacific Gas and Electric Co., Uber and others, have spent big to oppose Lybarger and boost Arreguín. Lybarger has benefited from outside spending by several labor groups, most notably American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Local 3299, which represents more than 30,000 University of California System workers and has spent over $1.7 million supporting her. Lybarger is the union’s president.
Another independent expenditure committee calling itself Fighting for our Future also reported spending nearly $120,000 to support Beckles last month, most of which went to campaign literature. The committee’s list of donors — which includes the California Association of Realtors, California Building Industry Association and several big businesses — seems at first glance like an odd fit to back Beckles, a self-described “corporate-free” candidate whose stances haven’t aligned with those groups. But many of the committee’s donors have also cut checks to support Arreguín, an indication they might be supporting Beckles in an effort to draw votes away from Lybarger.
Candidates and their campaigns are barred from coordinating with independent expenditure committees.
No other candidates have been the subject of outside spending, according to campaign finance records.
Arreguín has led the pack in terms of money raised directly by campaigns, taking in $773,467 as of Feb. 17, the most recent reporting date, with support from unions in the building trades as well as developers and real estate groups. Lybarger trailed with $576,427 as of that date, drawing donations from unions in several other fields.
Kalb was third in the fundraising race, with $340,102 worth of contributions through the filing deadline, while Swanson raised $207,420 and Beckles’ haul totaled $159,580.
